Gasoil ($/t)Monday 18 March, 2019
The fundamentals for kero / diesels weakened last week with stocks rising and demand falling. As a result the days cover increased by 1.7 days to 34.5. Despite the fall in demand on the week, demand is higher than both the level seen last year and the five year average. Stocks should resume their seasonal fall and demand should "tick higher" over the next few months. However, the short term graphs are weak and as a result the near term risks are to the downside.
Gasoline (cents/g)Monday 18 March, 2019
US Gasoline stocks fell sharply last week by 4.6mb but increased on the year by 1.6mb with stocks remaining above both the level seen last year and the five year average. Stocks should continue to fall over the next few months and demand rise providing a supportive backdrop to gasoline prices. Prices look short-term over bought and at risk of a technical correction lower.
Crude ($/b)Monday 18 March, 2019
The fundamentals for crude improved last week with stocks falling by 3.9mb on the week and 8.9mb on the year. US crude production also fell, down 100,000 bpd. Demand increased, up 318,000 bpd. As a result the days cover fell by 0.5 days. In summary the fundamentals were supportive for prices. However, strong resistance for Brent Crude at $68/b. is proving hard to break and we expect further price consolidation.