Gasoil ($/t)Monday 16 July, 2018
The fundamentals for kero / diesels weakened last week with total distillate stocks rising and demand falling. As a result the days cover increased by 3.5 days to 32 days. Demand is down 6.1% on the year (based on four week average) as high prices take their toll. The key ICE Gas Oil Future is under selling pressure and testing the bottom of the $650-700/t. trading range which has been in place since 1st May. We are cautious and believe prices should consolidate in the near term.
Gasoline (cents/g)Monday 16 July, 2018
The fundamentals for gasoline are the weakest seen in one year with gasoline stocks increasing above the level seen the previous year while demand fell 594,000 bpd on the week and 1.7 per cent on the year. As as result prices are weakening. However we believe prices are more likely to consolidate than fall.
Crude ($/b)Monday 16 July, 2018
Despite the large fall in the crude stocks of 12.6mb, demand also fell, contracting by 1.364m bpd. As a result the days cover increased by 0.7 days to 20.4. Demand has fallen 1.4% compared to the previous year. This is the first year on year fall in 2018 (based on four week average.) Crude prices were also hit by a surprise return of Libyan crude supply following an outage in June. As a result Brent Crude prices are testing support at $75/b. but the downside looks limited.