Gas Oil 1 year $/TonneMonday 20 November, 2017
The fundamentals for kero / diesels weakened slightly last week with a large fall in demand offsetting a fall in stocks. Stocks fell on the week but increased on the year. Stocks should be very close to the seasonal low point and it will be interesting to see if this bottoming out of stocks will be delayed this year following Hurricane Harvey. The key ICE Gas Oil Future is supported at $550/t. and a spike higher towards $600/t. remains a risk.
Gasoline 1 year $/TonneMonday 20 November, 2017
The fundamentals for gasoline weakened last week with stocks rising and demand falling. Stocks increased both compared to last week and the same period last year. Stocks should have bottomed out and will likely increase sharply over the next two months. Demand fell on the week by 324,000 bpd but held above the level seen last year for an eighth consecutive week. As a result we expect some price consolidation.
Crude 1 year $/TonneMonday 20 November, 2017
The fundamentals for crude weakened last week with stocks rising, production rising and demand falling. As a result crude prices weakened slightly. Demand should continue to weaken into the year end. However, the big question is what will happen crude stocks. The "direction of travel" is uncertain. Typically crude stocks fall from now until mid-January. However last year they increased and with US crude production surging there is potential for a further increase. As a result we are cautious and expect further price consolidation.
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