Gas Oil 1 year $/TonneMonday 23 April, 2018
The fundamentals for kero / diesels improved last week with stocks falling and demand rising. Total distillate stocks fell sharply on the week and are extending well below both the level seen last year and the five year average. Demand also increased. As a result the days cover fell to the second lowest level seen over the last year. In addition hedge funds increased long (buy) positions. However, the key ICE Gas Oil Future has reached long term resistance at $650/t. Therefore we expect some consolidation.
Gasoline 1 year $/TonneMonday 23 April, 2018
The fundamentals for gasoline improved last week with stocks falling sharply and demand rising. As a result the days cover fell by 1.8 days to 23.9, a 2018 low. With the driving season in sight, the risks are to the upside and as a result hedge funds were buyers. However, there is long term resistance at 215-220c/g. which should limit the upside.
Crude 1 year $/TonneMonday 23 April, 2018
The fundamentals for crude improved last week with stocks falling and demand surging. As a result the days cover fell sharply by 1.7 days to 19.9 days which is close to a 12 month low. Prices are finding support from the unrest in the Middle East, the new Saudi crude target range of $80-100/b. and worries that the US could re-apply sanctions on Iranian crude exports. However, WTI Crude has reached resistance at $70/b and a period of consolidation is expected.
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